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equit y
r es ea r ch a s ia
pa ci f ic
|
a us tr a li a
o ne
of
the
ques ti ons
w e
a r e
g ett ing
is
’wha t
w ill
the
r etu r ns
o f
the
s ect o r
look
li k e
the other
s ide
of
the
pa ndem ic ? ’
we
ca n
a ll
s ee tha t
the
ba nk s
look
c hea p
on
a histor ic a l
ba s is, but
do
they
look
chea p
on
a f utur e ba s is?
in
thi s
r epor t
w e consider
the
pr ima r y /per m a nent impa ct s
of
the
pa ndem ic
a nd
th e s econda r y /t r a ns it iona l
impa ct s ,
a nd
w ha t
tha t
m ea ns
f o r ba nk sector
r etu r ns
bot h
positi ve
a nd
nega ti ve.
figu r e
1 :
7 - 13 %
ro e
ra n g e
p o s t
p andemi c
16.0%
rese ar c h
an aly sts
ja rr o d
ma r ti n
61
2
8205
4334
ja rrod. m a rt in@ c red it - s uis s e. c om
a l e xa n d e r
d e m e t ri o u
61
2
8205
4403
a lexander.dem et riou @ c redit - s uis s e. c om
14.0%
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
13.4%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0% anz cba nab wbc
sourc e: c om pa ny
da t a ,
c redit
suis s e es t im a t es
w e
se e
th r ee
p r i mar y
and
si x
se co n d ar y
th e me s
fro m a b ank
i n v e sto r
p e r sp e c ti v e :
( 1 )
upta k e
of
dig it a l;
( 2 )
d em ise
of
ca s h;
a nd
( 3 )
r em ote
w or k ing .
o ur
s econda r y
o r tr a ns it iona l
impa ct s
inc lude :
( 1 )
l ow
r ates;
( 2 )
a ss et
pr ic e
vola ti li ty ;
( 3 )
f li g ht
to
qua li ty ;
( 4 )
r e - pr ic ing
of
c r edit ;
( 5 )
i m pact s
of
socia l
dista nci ng ;
a nd
( 6 )
r ed uced
tr a vel.
ro e
o u t
t he
o t he r
si d e :
w e ex a mine
the
va r ious
impa ct s
a cr os s
the
p& l
under
a r a ng e of
s cena r ios. we
es ti m a te
a potenti a l
r o e
r a ng e f or
the
s ect o r
pos t - pa ndem ic
of
7 - 13 % . while
the
r a ng e
is
necess a r il y
br oa d ,
the
low
m a r k er
s ees
a n
envir onment
o f
a naem ic g r ow th
combined
w it h
s tubbo r n ly
hig h
ba d
debts
a nd
r w a
in f la ti on.
t he
hig h
m a r k er pa r ti cul a r ly
bene f it s
f r om
a
s t r uc tur a l
cha ng e
in
the
cost
ba s e
a nd
nea r - ter m
competit ive a dvanta g es .
ar e
b ank
d i v i d e n d s
sac r e d
a n ym o r e ?
a t
the
low
r o e
m a r k e r ,
w e s ee the
potent ia l
f o r dividend
pa y outs
to
f a ll
to
50 %
a nd
s ubs equent
valua ti on
implic a ti ons ,
w hil e
a t
the
hi g h m a r k er ,
pa y outs
of
65 - 75 %
a r e s us ta inable ,
in
our
view.
d is closu re
ap p e nd ix
at
th e
b ack
o f
th is
rep o rt
conta in s
imp o rt ant
d is closu re s ,
analyst ce rt ifications, le g al
e ntity
d is closu re
and
th e
s ta tu s
o f
non - u s
analysts.
u s
discl os ur e :
c r edit
s uiss e does a nd
s eek s
to
do
business w it h
compa nies
cover ed
in
it s
r e s ea r ch
r epor ts.
a s
a
r es ult ,
inve s tor s
s ho uld
be
a w a r e
tha t
the
f ir m
m a y
ha ve
a
conf li ct
of
int e r es t
tha t
coul d a ff ect
t he
obj e ct ivit y
of
t his
r epor t .
inves tor s
should
c ons ider
t his
r epor t
a s
onl y
a sing le
f a ct or
i n
m a k ing
t heir
i nves tme nt
deci s ion.
aus tralian b anks
b ey ond
th e
pandem ic
b ank s
|
c omment
low high 11.0% 10.8% 10.5% 9.3% 7.1% 7.0% 7.0%
focu s
c harts
figu r e
2 :
in c r e asin g
u se
o f
d i g i ta l
tra n sac ti o n s
fo r
w b c
figu r e
3 :
u s e
o f
c as h
h a s
b ee n
d e c l i n i n g
o v e r
ti m e
r b a
c o n s um e r
p a y m e n t
s u r v e y
-
p a y m e n t
m e t h o d s
100 %
90 %
80 %
70 %
60 %
50 %
40 %
30 %
20 %
10 %
0%
2007
2010
2013
2016
2019
sourc e: c om pa ny
da t a sourc e: rb a
figu r e
4 :
81 %
o f
nab’ s
w o r kf o r c e
w o r kin g
rem o tel y
c u rr e n tl y
figu r e
5 :
ni m s
2.80 %
2.70 %
2.60 %
2.50 %
2.40 %
2.30 %
2.20 %
2.10 %
2.00 %
1.90 %
1.80 %
1.70 %
1.60 %
sourc e: c om pa ny
da t a sourc e: c om pa ny
da t a ,
c redit
suis s e es t im a t es
figu r e
6 :
im p ac t
o f
p andemi c o n
p l
figu r e
7 :
7 - 13 %
ro e
ra n g e
p o s t
p andemi c
14.0%
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
13.0%
anz
cba
nab
wbc
sourc e: c redit
suis s e sourc e: c om pa ny
da t a ,
c redit
suis s e es t im a t es
low
high
10.7%
10.5%
10.3%
7.0%
6.9%
6.8%
9.1%
c a s h c a r ds
b p a y
o t her a n z
c b a
n a b
wb
c
1 h 03 a
2 h 03 a
1 h 04 a
2 h 04 a
1 h 05 a
2 h 05 a
1 h 06 a
2 h 06 a
1 h 07 a
2 h 07 a
1 h 08 a
2 h 08 a
1 h 09 a
2 h 09 a
1 h 10 a
2 h 10 a
1 h 11 a
2 h 11 a
1 h 12 a
2 h 12 a
1 h 13 a
2 h 13 a
1 h 14 a
2 h 14 a
1 h 15 a
2 h 15 a
1 h 16 a
2 h 16 a
1 h 17 a
2 h 17 a
1 h 18 a
2 h 18 a
1 h 19 a
2 h 19 a
1 h 20 a
26%
31%
43%
52%
63%
69%
62%
47%
37%
27%
beyo nd
the
p andemic
we
a r e f iel ding
a number
of
que s ti ons on
the
s ect or
in
r ela ti on
to
how
the
s ect or
s hould
look
on the
other
s ide
o f
the
pa ndem ic .
most
investo r s
a ck now ledg e
t ha t
the
s ect or
look s
opti ca ll y chea p
es peci a ll y
on
a histor ic a l
b a s is ( even
w it h
the
r ecen t
bounc e)
but
the
ques ti on
is w hethe r compa r ing
t o
hi s tor y
i s
a pp r opr ia t e a nd
wha t
the
pos t - pa ndem ic
e nvi r onment
would
b r ing
f o r
the s ect or .
figu r e
8 :
b ank s
se c to r
p / b
v s
ro e
ti m e
se r i e s
w h a t
the
p o st - p a n d e m i c e n v ir o n m e n t
i s e xp e c te d
to
b ri n g
fo r
th e
se c to r ?
3.5 x
25%
3.0 x
2.5 x
2.0 x
1.5 x
1.0 x
0.5 x
20%
15%
10%
0.0 x
5%
sourc e: c om pa ny
da t a ,
c redit
suis s e es t im a t es
pr im a ry
a nd
s econ dar y
t he m es
t his
r epor t
outl ines
pos t - pa nde m ic
themes
tha t
m a y
impa ct
the
s ect or .
we
ha ve
nine
dif f er en t themes .
we
consider
tha t
the
f ir s t
thr ee a r e perm a nent
or
s tr uct u r a l
cha ng es
( u pta k e of
dig it a l, dem ise
of
ca s h,
r em ote
w or k in g )
w her ea s
the
r em a ini ng
s ix
ha ve
a
nea r -
to
medium - ter m impa ct
( low
r a tes
f or
long e r ,
r isk
a ver s ion,
f li g ht
to
qua li ty ,
r ep r ic ing
of
c r edit ,
medium - te r m impa ct s
of
s oci a l
dista nci ng
a nd
r educed
t r a vel) .
we
then
t r a ns pose
these
themes
int o
the impa ct
on
the
p& l
a nd
r etur ns
of
the
s ect or .
t o
be
s ur e,
our
implic it
a ss um pti on
is
tha t
a va cc ine
is developed
over
the
ne a r - to - medium
ter m .
we
a lso
a ck now ledg e tha t
thi s
is
f a r
f r om a n
ex ha us ti ve
li s t
a nd
t hem es
ma y
f a de
a nd
ot her s
emer g e.
impac t
of
the
pande m ic
on
ba nks ’
p& l
we
es ti m a te
a potent ia l
r o e
r a ng e f or
the
s ect o r
pos t - pa ndem ic
of
7 - 13 % .
while
thi s
r a ng e is necess a r il y
br oa d,
the
low
m a r k er
s ees
a n
envir onment
o f
a n a em ic
g r ow th
combined
w it h s tubbornly
hig h
ba d
debts
a nd
g r ea ter
ca pit a l
int ens it y .
t he
hi g h
m a r k er
pa r ti cul a r ly
benef it s f r om
a str uct u r a l
cha ng e i n
t he
c os t
ba s e a nd
nea r - ter m
c om peti ti ve
a dvanta g es .
while
thi s
r epor t
is
not
s peci f i ca ll y
a bout
m a k ing
s toc k
a nd
s ect or
r ecommenda ti ons ,
our f or eca s t
f y 22 e
r o e
s it s
between
the
low
a nd
hig h
m a r k er s ,
a nd
g ener a ll y
cl os er
to
the
low m a r k er .
we
put
thi s
down
to
our
inc or por a ti on
o f
a f a t
ta il
of
b dd s
( 30 - 35
bp )
a nd
we
g ener a ll y do
not
ha ve
a ny
s tr uct ur a l
r edu ct ion
in
costs.
t ha t
s a id,
w e es ti m a te
tha t
our
f or eca s t
r o es
a r e a t
or
a r ound
thei r
cost of
equ it y
a nd
a r e s uppor ti ve
of
our
ta r g et
pr ic es
cur r entl y
bein g
s et
w it h r es pect
to
book
va lue.
f ur the r
a hea d,
w e
ex pect
tha t
r o es
a t
the
m iddl e - to - top
end
o f
th e r a ng e
a r e
s uppor ti ve
of
valua ti ons
tha t
a r e
a t
a
pr em ium
to
book
va lue,
w her ea s
r o es
a t
the low
end
of
t he
r a ng e would
see
valua ti ons l ik ely
sta y
a t
or
bel ow
book .
our
vie w
on
the
sector
we
r em a in
const r uct ive
on
the
s ect or
on
a 12 - m onth
view
but
a c k now ledg e nea r - ter m
ea r n ing s vola ti li ty .
t ha t
s a id,
w e cont inue
to
beli eve
the
cur r ent
event
is a n
ea r ning s
iss ue
f or
the
s ect o r a nd
not
a
ba la nce
s heet
one.
wi th
ba nk s
tr a ding
below
book
value
a nd
in
s om e
ca s es
below nt a
w e
s ee
thi s
a s
a n
oppor tuni ty .
o ur
o r der
o f
pr e f er en ce
is
wb c
( o u t per f o r m) ,
a n z ( o u t per f o r m) ,
n a b
( o u t pe r f o r m)
a nd
c b a
( n eu t r a l ) .
pr i ma r y
a n d
s e co n d a r y
p o st - p a n d e m i c the m e s i m p ac ti n g
the
se c tor
w e
e sti ma te
a p o te n ti a l
r o e
r a n g e
for
the se c tor
p o st - p a n d e m i c o f
7 - 13 %.
w e
e sti ma te tha t
o u r
fo r e ca st
r o es
a r e
a t
o r
a r o u n d
t he ir co st
o f
e qu i ty
a n d
a r e
su pp o r ti v e
o f
o u r
ta r g e t p ri c e s
c u rr e n tl y
b e i n g
se t
w i th
r e sp e c t
to
b oo k v a l u e
w e
r e ma i n
co n str u c ti v e
o n
th e
se c t o r
o n
a 12 - mo n th
v i e w ,
bu t
ac k n o w l e d g e
n e a r -te r m e a r n i n g s
v o l a ti li ty .
t h a t
sa i d ,
w e
co n ti n u e
to b e li e v e
th e
c u rr e n t
e v e n t
i s
a n
e a r n i n g ...
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